Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC): Lots of Hype?

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (NYSE:TMHC) stock enjoyed an overall uptrend of 24.28% from the beginning of 2019. The closing share price quoted for February 12, 2019 was $19.76. The 4.77% rally might have been tempting for an investor to buy at this point and in fact that would prove a good idea, as sell-side analysts think there is almost 26.52% more gain yet to come for shareholders. Analysts seemed to set $25 as highest price target on its way to greater gains. The average 12-month price target they expect from the stock is $19.33. This mean price target represents -2.18% downside over its previous closing price. The median price target they presented was $19 for the next 12-months, which suggests a -3.85% upside from current levels. Some analysts have a lowest price target on the stock of $16, which would mean a -19.03% gain in value.

A fresh roundup today notes that TMHC stock has lost around -17.39% of its value in the past 12 months, suggesting more investors have expressed concern about about in that time period. If we turn to the Street in general, the positives still outweigh the negatives as we can see that Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC), have a ,neutral (2.8) analyst consensus rating. In the current time, the stock has 2 buy and 8 hold ratings. The stock registered its 52-week high of $24.76 on February 15 and its 52-week low of $14.73 on October 23. Currently, the shares are trading $1.53 above its YTD moving average of $18.23.

Moving on, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) last reported its September 2018 earnings. For brief highlights, it performed well in that quarter, with earnings up 84% year-over-year at $0.83. The company surprised analysts by 30 who were expecting $0.64 per share. Overall, its quarterly revenues jumped by 12% to reach $1.01 billion, while it had reported $908.03 million in the same period a year ago. To see what investors should really expect from its December 2018 financial results consensus analyst estimates are calling for current quarter earnings per share of $0.46, down from $0.77 in the same quarter a year ago. However, earnings-per-share are expected to see growth of 17.3% in next year. From there, the company believes it can achieve a long-term annual earnings growth rate of 8.3 %. At the other end of the income statement, we have seen revenue of $4.07 billion over the trailing 12 months.

To help you decide whether it’s worth the wait (and the money), Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (NYSE:TMHC) is currently trading at 14.1X the company’s trailing-12-month earnings per share, which represents a discount compared to the sector’s 17.54X and comes in above its industry’s 10.17X. The most popular method for valuing a stock is to study the historic Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio using reported earnings for the past 12 months. The EPS number for this stock in the most recent four quarters of earnings stood at $1.4. P/E ratio is so popular because it’s simple, it’s effective, and, tautologically, because everyone uses it.

The 14-day Absolute ATR (Average True Range) on Tuesday, February 12 of 2019 shows that the price on average moves $0.58. The average daily volatility is 2.81% over the past week. Low volatility is good for the stock and it means we have calm and confident investors. If you check recent Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) volume, you will see that it has changed to 1.36 million shares versus the average daily volume of 1.4 million shares.

When you look at the daily chart for TMHC, you will observe the stock held 0.82% gains in the 6-month period and maintains 34.15% distance from its most recent low. The past 5-day performance for the share stays positive at 2.49% but up 7.69% from its three-week moving average. Comparing to 50-day SMA, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation shares price is now up 13.45%. It also closed 4.12% higher from its 200-day SMA. This is often seen as the last line of defense for long term trends to find support at, else be considered broken and/or in a bear market. The daily chart of the stock more clearly reveals the slide in prices as it closed Tuesday with a 1-month performance at 8.45%.